The NFL playoff bracket is official and the quest for who will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in Las Vegas in just four-plus weeks begins Saturday.
And it’s time to give respect to the hottest team in the league, the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo has been playing playoff games since its loss to the Eagles on Nov. 26, a 37-34 shootout loss in a game that Josh Allen put the team on his back with four total touchdowns and 420 total yards.
Rankings No. 3 in Aaron Schatz’s DVOA, Buffalo profiles as the team that has overcome the most obstacles while peaking at the ideal time.
Their Bills’ defense constantly let them down early.
| Bills defense | Weeks 1-9 | Weeks 10-18 |
|---|---|---|
| QB passing yards allowed | 2,149 (22nd-best) | 1,509 (best) |
| RB rushing yards allowed | 795 (23rd-best) | 598 (6th best) |
This can, in large part, be attributed to critical injuries across their unit.
But they seem to have gotten healthy in recent weeks, including allowing the least passing yards allowed in the NFL over the last eight weeks.
This is despite playing offensive powerhouses such as the Dolphins, Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys in that span. The Cowboys and Dolphins are No. 1 and No. 2 in total points this season, respectively.
Then we get to this issue of turnovers, which has snakebitten Josh Allen throughout his career and particularly this season.
Allen was second in the NFL in turnovers with 22, behind only Commanders quarterback Sam Howell.
A big piece of that is Allen’s struggles the most against zone coverage; his 87.4 quarterback rating against zone coverage is the second-lowest among playoff quarterbacks, ahead of only Jalen Hurts.
When looking at the AFC, though, most teams play man coverage.
Below are the precise man vs. zone coverage rates among the remaining teams.
| Team | Zone Coverage percent | Zone Coverage QB rating | Man Coverage percent | Man Coverage QB rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 46.1 | 67.9 (best in NFL) | 53.9 | 81.2 |
| Steelers | 60.3 | 83.7 | 39.7 | 88.7 |
| Dolphins | 41.9 | 89.5 | 58.1 | 90.5 |
| Chiefs | 46.5 | 79.7 | 53.5 | 86.7 |
| Texans | 61.5 | 87.2 | 36.5 | 87.2 |
| Browns | 51.4 | 73.6 | 48.6 | 78.4 |
| Bills | 61.3 | 80.3 | 38.7 | 79.6 |
| Packers | 65.2 | 92.6 | 34.8 | 102.4 |
| Cowboys | 37.3 | 72.7 | 62.7 | 84.5 |
| Rams | 49.2 | 87.8 | 50.8 | 84.5 |
| Lions | 56.9 | 88.1 | 43.1 | 103.5 (worst among playoff teams) |
| Eagles | 50.7 | 92.5 | 49.3 | 101.6 |
| Buccaneers | 64.1 | 101.4 | 35.9 | 82.1 |
| 49ers | 67.4 | 79.2 | 32.6 | 83.3 |
Allen will struggle in a potential matchup with the Ravens, but that wouldn’t come until the AFC Championship Game.
Buffalo is a massive favorite against the Steelers, and while that spread might be too long (Steelers might be a good bet at +10), it should make for a solid spot for them to move on to the next round.
From there, they would face the highest winning seed of Chiefs (3) vs. Dolphins (6) and Texans (4) vs. Browns (5).
Betting on the NFL?
With any luck, the Bills will avoid the Browns’ tough defense.
Buffalo would likely be at least a three-point underdogs in a potential AFC Championship Game matchup against the Ravens.
And who knows, maybe they can get a date with the Cowboys in the Super Bowl, a game they dominated just a few weeks ago, 31-10.
With a navigatable path to the conference championship game, Buffalo’s +650 odds to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM Sportsbook is a reasonable path.
After this week, the Bills will be around +500, assuming a win against the Steelers, and dip further if they can get their revenge on the Chiefs or best the winner of Browns-Texans.
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