It’s far too soon to evaluate the blockbuster trades that shook up April’s NFL draft and altered the course of multiple franchises. But that isn’t stopping people in the industry from murmuring about them.
The Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals put an indelible mark on the 2023 draft with transactions involving multiple top-10 picks. Almost certainly, those deals will end up including top-10 draft capital next spring as well. Carolina, trying to kick-start a rebuild by moving from the No. 9 pick to Chicago’s top overall selection to nab Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, already seems destined to bring up the rear in the middling NFC South — and doesn’t have a first-round pick in April. The Cardinals, the preseason wagering favorites to have the league’s worst record — with rival executives viewing them as tanking for next year’s No. 1 pick — are far more plucky and viable than the team’s front office could have expected when it dealt the third pick to Houston. And the Texans are one of the league’s early surprises, lowering the value of their first-round pick, which Arizona owns.
Should these four teams maintain their arcs, it would have major ramifications on the next offseason as all made calculated wagers about their desire for or likelihood of being in contention for Southern California wunderkind quarterback Caleb Williams — consistently viewed as a generational NFL talent in the making — at the top of the 2024 draft. The fallout from these trades is being monitored closely around the league, and informal chats with scouts, personnel executives and general managers invariably turn to the wagers the Panthers (0-4) and Cardinals (1-3) made last spring.
“I know it’s early, but you can’t tell me they both aren’t having some buyer’s remorse,” said one NFL general manager, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to preserve his ability to do business with the Cardinals and Panthers. “Young doesn’t look nearly as good as the other two [quarterbacks selected in the top-five picks], and we think his size will be a problem. They’re going to have a top-three pick again, but that belongs to Chicago. The Bears are [likely to] have the top two picks in the draft, and it’s not like [the Panthers] can trade Young to get back in. They’re stuck. …
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“Arizona, listen, everybody in the league knows what they were trying to do — that’s a total tank job. They aren’t going to play [injured 2019 top pick Kyler] Murray; they traded their starter [at quarterback before Week 1] so they can get in position to take Williams. But if they keep playing like this, they’re not going to be picking until, what, seventh or eighth, maybe? At best? And nobody at the top is trading down. …
“And the Texans, I’m telling you, that’s a good football team. They are for real. Arizona was banking on that being a top-three pick. Houston might not pick until 20-something. Will Anderson [whom the Texans took with the Cardinals’ No. 3 pick], that kid is a beast already.”
That’s a lot to unpack. Let’s start with the Panthers.
They traded top wide receiver DJ Moore, the No. 9 pick, a 2023 second-round pick, a 2024 first-rounder and a 2025 second-rounder for the right to draft Young; they also dealt former all-pro running back Christian McCaffrey nearly a year ago in what was supposed to quickly reposition them in a winnable division. Everyone I spoke with expressed some degree of concern about Young, who has attempted just eight passes of more than 21 air yards in three starts, has already missed one game due to injury and has yet to throw for even 205 yards in a game. His offensive line is dismal, and he has crumbled under pressure, completing just 48.5 percent of his passes and averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, according to TruMedia. Too many hits too soon can lead to big problems, and Carolina’s lack of a 2024 first-round pick could prompt more trades.
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“You think the quarterback might look a little better if he had McCaffrey in the backfield with him?” asked one personnel executive, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity. “You think they want that one back? McCaffrey is probably the MVP of the league right now, and look at what he’s doing for [quarterback Brock] Purdy in San Francisco. [Panthers owner David Tepper] fell in love with Young, but they took the wrong quarterback and now they have no [first-round] pick.”
One scout agreed with that assessment of Young, saying “you can’t compare Young and Stroud,” referring to Houston’s C.J. Stroud, taken No. 2. “One is a franchise quarterback in the making, and the other looks like a project to me. [The Panthers] probably talked themselves into thinking he was Russell Wilson, but I don’t see it.”
The GM said the Panthers, in his view, are in worse shape than the Bears “because of the picks. They’ll end up moving [top edge rusher Brian] Burns now, too, because they need picks to rebuild the O-line.”
As for the Cardinals, who walked away from wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins amid their talent purge, being too good too soon might actually be the problem. They nearly beat the Washington Commanders and the New York Giants, and they throttled the supposedly mighty Dallas Cowboys. The Cardinals even hung around with the unbeaten 49ers into the fourth quarter in Week 4. They turned to journeyman quarterback Josh Dobbs with barely any time before the opener, but he has stabilized their offense since being acquired from the Browns for essentially a fifth-round pick.
“I didn’t know what to make of [first-year coach Jonathan Gannon], to be honest, but he has them playing their asses off,” the personnel executive said. “They hit you, man. He’s turned them into a physical football team, and they play with nothing to lose. Dobbs can manage a game. He knows who he is. He limits mistakes. If they keep up this effort level, they can win six or seven games.”
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Gulp. Goodbye, Caleb. Probably goodbye, Kyler, too.
The 2-2 Texans are also muddying Arizona’s plans. The AFC South looks wide open, and Houston — led by Stroud and Anderson — has piled up 67 points over the past two weeks in upsets of Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals landed the 12th and 33rd picks in the 2023 draft (and first- and third-round picks in 2024) by surrendering the third pick to Houston, then packaged some of that to get back to No. 6 to select tackle Paris Johnson Jr.
“Will Anderson is the best defensive player in the draft,” the personnel executive said. “He’s already an ass kicker. They’re going to regret that trade, especially when they don’t get Williams.”
Said the GM: “They’re doing a great job with Stroud. [Coach] DeMeco Ryans obviously came from San Francisco; you study what they’re doing with Stroud, and it’s very similar to what Kyle [Shanahan] is doing with Purdy. … And [Ryans is] already turning around that defense. They’re much better against the run now.”
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The scout said of the Texans: “They’re getting healthy on the O-line now, and the quarterback is a stud. They’re going to start road-grading people. They’re going to win that division.”
That would be a mighty blow to the Cardinals. We’ve already chronicled the inevitable changes coming to Chicago in this space, but one could imagine the Bears — who had lost 14 straight until Thursday’s upset of the Commanders — cashing in with the top two picks in the draft. They need only look to Houston for a blueprint of how to take advantage. Maybe the Panthers or Cardinals would want Chicago QB Justin Fields as a consolation prize?
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